Obama the Realist

My feelings about this presidential election are no mystery. I remember a conversation I had in March or April of 2007 about the relative merits of the democratic contenders, specifically Obama, Clinton, and Richardson. I believed then that Clinton would be a more effective operator "within the system." After all, Clinton surprised many during her freshmen term, gaining the plaudits of both democrats and republicans. She has also proven to be a prodigiously effective representative for the people of New York, and it doesn't look like she's going anywhere. Though I didn't think a Clinton presidency would usher in systemic change, I thought she would be the best candidate to get us "back to normal."
Regarding Obama, I was somewhat skeptical. I bought the party line that as a political newcomer, he was a policy lightweight. His "Change" agenda, though compelling, was totally lacking in legs (unsurprising for this point in the race) and I didn't think he had the staying power to be a major factor this cycle. Looking back, it's hard to tell if Obama has evolved as a candidate or if I was just wrong. In possibly the best week yet for his campaign (McCain Gaffes, record fundraising, Bush and Maliki both support a timetable (or horizon)) Obama appears unstoppable. He is driving the debate on Iraq, his opponent continues bumbling, and the biggest scandal he faces is over a dress code.
Its not only because he has turned around the culture of democratic loserdom that he's so likable, though. This article by Fareed Zakaria does an excellent job of touching on a subtle point. Though it can seem like it, it's not as if McCain supports torture while Obama is opposed, or that McCain is a warmonger while Obama is Teddy Roosevelt. Instead, they're separated by a world outlook. Whether due to rigid beliefs or political necessity, McCain has taken up Bush's mantle as the "toughness" candidate with little consideration for effectiveness. While over 30 terrorists have been convicted in civilian courts and are currently behind bars, only 1 has been convicted (and was later freed on appeal) through the disasterous military tribunal process. McCain, of course, supports the tribunal process and decries the SCOTUS decision on Habeas Corpus. On this issue, Obama is clearly in the right, but as Zakaria notes, it's his ability to clearly understand and articulate a nuanced opinion focused on effectiveness that has been such a pleasant surprise as the campaign has gone along.
Obama's incredible polish in the face of unrelenting media scrutiny has been nothing short of miraculous. It's been extremely helpful in letting him set the agenda and introduce himself to voters, but isn't without a downside. I find it unlikely that he can continue in this fashion through November, and the focus on Barack obscures the curious campaign of John McCain. The republican consistently puts his foot in his mouth in ways that, as a democrat, are almost too good to be true. Because I doubt he'll continue producing material this good (or scary, depending) I look for the Obama campaign to make a concerted effort, especially after the conventions, to shift the campaign focus to McCain. In a cycle of incredible antipathy towards republicans, the biggest challenge for democrats is to avoid making this election a referendum on Obama. I look for increased news coverage of McCain starting with Obama's US return, continuing with an early VP nod, through the conventions, and into the debate. I don't think this increased attention can do anything but help Obama's chances come November.